The European Commission publishes its updated economic forecasts Thursday for 2012 and 2013 for 27 economies of the bloc. According to several sources, they show a significant drop in activity and will spur debate among member states on a revision of targets for this year and next year.

A European official working directly on the case told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the current targets would gradually appear untenable and could be adjusted upon publication of economic forecasts Spring, May 11

"The (European) Commission does not want to look ridiculous by insisting on unrealistic goals and there will be adjustments," he said. 

According to three other sources of high rank, the Commission could allow member states to go beyond a few decimal points their goals for 2012 while keeping unchanged those of 2013, when most European countries promised to return to below 3% under the Stability and Growth.

The EU executive could also decide to defer a year, until 2014, achieving this goal to reflect the change in environment since the publication in November An estimate of the growth was still 0.5% in 2012 and 1.5% in 2013. 

REVISION "SMALL OR VERY SMALL"

For several weeks, several countries, including Italy and Spain have questioned the paradigm of austerity inspired by Germany and called for a shift of policies e ECONOMIC towards less spending cuts and measures to support the growth and fight unemployment.

European leaders have addressed this issue in late January at an informal summit and on Monday, Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain and eight other countries felt that the euro area should try to focus on reactivation of growth in the EU rather than solely on fiscal consolidation. 

Spain is particularly under the spotlight since the new center-right government announced in December that the deficit would reach 8% of GDP or more in 2011, well above the pre ; visions.

If Madrid continues to provide, at least in public, that the deficit will be reduced to 4.4% this year, the threat of a recession makes this task almost impossible.

One source said that Spain and other countries hoped the Commission would show a certain "understanding" while many economies are facing recession in their second three years. This source added, however, that we should not expect a revision other than "small or very small."

According to the Wednesday edition of the newspaper El Pais, the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy could request within ten days to review the Community executive from 4.4% to 5% over the current target of deficit reduction.

Rajoy and his economy minister, Luis De Guindos, met with Jose Manuel Barroso, Commission president, and Olli Rehn, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, last Tuesday Aftern s that Reuters found that Brussels plans to sanction Madrid for not sufficiently reduce the deficits. 

NO APPETITE NORTH

The economies of both the euro area and EU shrank by 0.3% over the last three months of the year and despite signs of stabilization, analysts questioned ; s by Reuters believe that activity will fall by 0.4% in the euro area in 2012 before recovering to sluggish growth in 2013.

But, with a support plan for 130 billion euros to Greece only adopted and faults are doing day in Portugal, the European Commission and countries whose fiscal position is the most sound estimate that deficit reduction must remain a top priority. 

"Y-Will there a discussion of deficits in the Eurogroup? Perhaps, but there is little or no appetite or sympathy at all for a softening of goals," explained , a European source involved in discussions. "Ask the Belgians, or the northern countries (EU) or the Germans."

Under pressure from the European Commission, Belgium has announced the freezing of € 1.3 billion of expenditures in excess of 11.3 billion euros in savings already announced es. The country has no intention to be flexible with their peers.

Germany, Finland, the Netherlands and Luxembourg are also reluctant to revise downwards the targets because they believe that fiscal consolidation is a precondition for a sustainable growth in the future and that the European crisis is above all a crisis of confidence.

"Review downward targets would be of no help," the source said, adding that it would also undermine the credibility of the new rules on monitoring deficits and debt which the EU has since the crisis began in 2009. 

Under these rules, a country must now submit its budget to advance to the Commission and can be automatically sanctioned and fined in case of deficit greater than 3% of GDP and debt greater than 60% of GDP.

Last month, 25 of 27 Member States have even gone further by agreeing to a rule limiting their deficits to 0.5% throughout the primary cycle.

This is a gleam of hope for employees of LyondellBasell refinery. Threatened closure of the site-Berre l'Etang located in the Bouches du Rhone interested investment group Klesh. In parallel, the Swiss group has already made an application for three Petroplus refineries in Europe, including the site of Petit-Couronne, in Normandy.

The group Klesch just sent following discussions with the Inter advice and a letter of intent after which he expressed interest in buying the refinery and steam cracker, "say the unions CFE / CGC, CFDT, CFTC, CGT and FO in a statement, asking the current management and public authorities to investigate this possibility "with the utmost seriousness." Contacted by AFP, the Swiss refused to any immediate comment

. "A credible alternative to the closing"

According to the unions, this track, initiated by the unions after the announcement in November by the French chemist Arkema a sale of its vinyl (PVC, chlorine) to Klesch, "opens a credible alternative to the closure of the refinery." Fabien Astier, CGT, highlights the consistency of the project, which would develop synergies between the refinery, steam cracker and the Arkema Fos-sur-Mer. Asked about the profile of Klesch, presented by the unions of Arkema, hostile to the sale of vinyls, like a "gravedigger," Mr. Astier said "remain vigilant". "We are not ready to sign a blank check," he warned. The group must "demonstrate its credibility through a machine vision, financial and social in line with our requirements on this site in the interests of employees and the entire petrochemical site Berre," said the Inter.

The current management had announced the proposed closure of the refinery September 27, 2011, after failing to find a buyer, citing "heavy losses". This project, which was to receive 370 of the approximately 1,250 employees who work on the total complex of the U.S. group. LyondellBasell around the Etang de Berre, had resulted in the immediate vote of strike, with blocking units, for nearly two weeks before the granting by the direction of a reprieve. The refinery is currently "mothballed", that is to say, but stopped maintained to be ready to restart in case of buyer, that unions are actively looking.

The Greeks are overwhelmingly in favor "of the European perspective" of their country, despite the austerity measures imposed by the EU and the IMF, which have raised new protests Sunday in Athens on the eve of a crucial meeting of the euro area.

Prime Minister Lucas Papademos went on Sunday night in Brussels Monday to participate in the meeting of finance ministers of the euro area, which is expected to endorse the second bailout of Greece, vital for the country risk that a bankruptcy next month, it was learned from European sources.  

While partners of Greece openly mention a departure from the country of the euro, only 19.6% of Greeks surveyed in a poll published Sunday by the newspaper Ethnos voted to return to the drachma, the national currency of the country before its accession to the eurozone in 2002. Three-quarters (75.9%) appear instead in favor "of the European perspective" of their country and two-thirds (66.5%) want the sanitation program dictated by the EU and IMF succeed. The publication of this survey comes after a week of racing against the clock to the Greek government, under intense pressure from Europe, finalized new austerity measures in Budget 2012, one of the preconditions for the outbreak of the second plan Rescue.

The plan includes an international loan of 130 billion euros and a restructuring plan and erasing debt. It is vital for Greece, threatened to default on March 20, at maturity of an obligation of 14.5 billion euros. But the drastic measures of rigor with it have led to new protests Sunday in Athens before Parliament where about 3,000 people participated in two different rallies, one in late morning to call the union and the second in 'afternoon organized by the radical left. Previous demonstrations of a week ago had been marred by violence.

The banners criticizing the wage cuts, especially the 22% decrease in the minimum wage (currently 740 euros), adopted by the coalition government the right (New Democracy) and the Socialists (PASOK). "The national consensus is a scam, poverty and hunger have no nationality" stated a banner subtitled in English: "All of us we are Greeks, Merkel and Sarkozy are freaks" (we are all Greeks, Sarkozy and Merkel are monsters). But while the survey found eight out of ten Ethnos assign responsibility for the situation of the country "to the Greek governments" and only 6.1% "to the Europeans and the IMF," some demonstrators expressed an awareness of changes considered necessary for the country.

New pension cuts

Phevos and Iliopoulos, consultant, said the measures "have a profound impact on how society functions." But he said "if the Greeks are finding ways to improve the way they work, then there is no doubt that they will be able to move and they will turn this dark page in their history." His comments echo those of the European Commissioner Viviane Reding Justice that Greece should stop looking for "scapegoats" abroad to explain his own problems and work harder to rebuild their state and get out of his disastrous economic situation. "I am hopeful that (finance ministers) reach agreement on the (rescue). But with certain conditions. Money should not be poured into a bottomless pit, "said the European official Austrian newspaper Kurier

. Saturday, the Greek Cabinet approved further cuts in pensions and additional principal to fill a hole of 325 million euros in the 2012 budget, as required by the EU and the IMF. A bill on the subject to be debated in parliament next week, the main pension exceeding 1,300 euros per month will be reduced by 12%. "There is optimism in that everything we asked for was done and the troika (EU-ECB-IMF), the 'approved', ruled Saturday the government spokesman Pantelis Kapsis. But he acknowledged that "the discussion would be very difficult because there are several opinions". "Last round for the agreement," warned his side on Sunday liberal newspaper Kathimerini

.

This information confirms an article published Friday by the Financial Times that NYSE Euronext and CME Group submitted bids on the LME, valuing up to one billion pounds (1.2 billion euros).

The FT adds that Intercontinental Exchange has also made an offer and hired JPMorgan as advisor.

The LME has responded by claiming to have received "many offers" to purchase.

"Everything is on track with lots of offers to consider for the board next week," said a spokesman for the world leader of industrial metals. The board will meet next Thursday.

Analysts and industry sources value the LME from 0.5 to 1.5 billion pounds, anticipating earnings growth based on new products and its self-clearing.

A source familiar with the matter estimated that a merger between NYSE Euronext and the LME would make sense.

"LME is complementary to the activities of NYSE Euronext. If realized, this operation would achieve synergies and above what would be interesting for customers of both parties, they would have access to the products of both companies but ; through a single entry point, which would be cheaper, "said this source

. NYSE Liffe market concerns including transactions on cocoa, robusta coffee, white sugar, milling wheat, wheat foraged, rapeseed, corn or malt barley

. Citing

someone familiar with the matter, the Financial Times reports that about half of the fifteen companies that have accessed the accounts of the LME showed a tender in an initial closed Wednesday. 

The FT said that potential candidates such as Deutsche Börse abstained and it is unlikely that the London Stock Exchange submit an offer.

A source familiar with the matter told Reuters in September that would link to the Singapore Exchange LSE to submit a joint bid on the LME.

* BNP Paribas has announced a net profit halved in the fourth quarter, to 765 million euros, mainly because of a new provisioning on Greece and a significant contraction of its profits in corporate banking and investment because of the crisis in the euro area.

* PSA announced new savings and a comprehensive plan for asset sales, including a partial Gefco, to counter the group's financial position after a 2011 financial year marked by a relapse of re ; net result. 

* DANONE said address with confidence after 2012 achieved its growth targets for 2011 thanks to its good performance in emerging markets where the Group currently generates more than half of its sales.

* AREVA. The internal audit by the nuclear group on the controversial acquisition of the mining company Uramin concluded that a lack of governance and information but does not revealed information indicating the rumors of fraud.

* EADS – Tom Enders, the CEO of Airbus, said he had ordered an internal investigation into the cracks in the wings of the A380 superjumbo.

* M6 hearings on behalf of its flagship chain to pull out of the game in a context sensitive advertising that promises this year, said Chief Financial Officer Jerome LEFE ; bure. 

* PAGESJAUNES announced that its board would propose as an exceptional pass the dividend for 2011, after registering a decline in its revenues and profit margins last year.

* FINANCIAL VALUES – Finance ministers from the euro area agreed by phone to abandon plans to meet Wednesday on the Greek case, announced the president of the Eurogroup Jean-Claude Juncker, adding that another meeting would be held on February 20.

The European Central Bank (ECB) decided to redistribute the profits from its Greek bonds to member states of the euro area, which could then decide to lend to new exhibitions ties as part of an agreement on debt, said Luc Coene, a member of the Governing Council of the ECB. 

* INSURERS – China will implement a major reform of its financial sector which will open the Chinese market for car insurance, said U.S. Vice President Joe Biden.

* CYCLING – The first estimate of economic growth in the euro zone in the fourth quarter will be published at 11am, and the trade balance in the region. At 14:30, the Empire State index of February will be announced in the U.S. before the figures of industrial production in January to 15.15 and the NAHB housing index from February to 16h.

In France, the economy grew by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared to the previous three months, a figure higher than expected, according to the given ; are preliminary national accounts published by INSEE.

* Carrefour has filed with the AMF (AMF), through Credit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank and Societe Generale, its proposed takeover of Guyenne and Gascogne. 

* BIC has forecast a restated operating margin of the group in 2012 "close to the record level reached in 2011" after last year's increase of 14.7% its net profit at 237.9 million euros. The group will propose an ordinary dividend of 2.20 euros per share (+15.8%) and a special dividend of 1.80 euro per share.

* BIOMERIEUX study confirmed the hypothesis of its strategic plan for 2015 but said that its outlook for 2012 were in line with the plan, which forecasts growth annual organic sales of 7 to 9% on average.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected an average decline of 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) of a quarter over quarter after falling 0.6% in the third ; quarter.

Initial estimates of the National Statistics Institute (INE) released Tuesday, the fourth quarter 2011 GDP fell by 2.7% over the last three months of 2010.

Over the full year 2011, the Portuguese economy shrank by 1.5% following growth of 1.4% in 2010. For 2012, the Portuguese government expects a GDP decline of about 3%, other austerity measures to have a negative impact on the economy.

To achieve its budget deficit and debt provided under the plan of international aid by 78 billion euros, Lisbon has increased taxes, cut spending and decreased wages, measures that have hampered the consumption and investment.

Greek Prime Minister of Greece Lucas Papademos warned against the "economic chaos" in case of rejection, while Germany has warned that Greece should stop being a "well bottomless "`.

After three days of tension and political threats, Parliament began shortly after 14:00 (12:00 GMT) to examine the bill to save 3.3 billion euros thanks to lower wages, pensions and job cuts public. 

The vote must take place before midnight (2200 GMT), said the finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, "because on Monday morning, the banking and financial markets should have received the message that Greece can and will survive. "

"If the law is not adopted, the country will go bankrupt," warned the Minister that a Communist deputy threw the pages of the bill on the floor of the Assembly.

About twenty members of the coalition of Lucas Papademos have threatened in recent days to vote against the text and six government members submitted their resignations, but the Prime Minister will still theoretically supported by a large majority.

But the Greek population does not intend to accept the new austerity measures without saying anything. 

"The Greek people RAISE"

Tens of thousands of people gathered in the afternoon around Parliament to lobby MPs, the largest mobilization for months.

"Enough is enough!" Exclaimed Manolis Glezos, 89, a veteran of the extreme left.

"They have no idea what it means to an uprising of the Greek people. And the Greek people, ideas all political persuasions, is beginning to lift, "said the hero of the resistance to the Nazis during World War II

.

"annihilation These measures will not go", he further promised, mouth covered by a mask to protect themselves from tear gas fired by police to de pledge Syntagma Square, Parliament

. Some protesters responded by throwing stones and Molotov cocktails at police ….. At least fourteen

…. protesters injured were taken to hospital, police said, and about fifty others treated on site , mostly for choking. At least eight policemen were also injured.

"There is tear gas into the interior of the Assembly," said an MP, Panagiotis Lafazanis.

The new austerity plan is the price to pay for the release of an aid program of 130 billion euros from the EU and the IMF – the second since 2010.

Greece has to touch the money before March 20 to repay a state loan of 14.5 billion euros.

"Bottomless well"

Germany has turned up the heat a notch Sunday warning that Europe expected actions and not words.

"The promises of Greece are no longer sufficient for us," warned the German finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble. 

Referring to the new austerity plan in which the Greek deputies must vote this Sunday, the minister said in an interview published by the Welt am Sonntag that the previous did not e ; tee implemented in their entirety.

Wolfgang Schäuble said that the Germans are largely in favor of an international aid to Greece. "But it's important to say that it can be a bottomless pit. This is why the Greeks will finally have to clog the well. Then we can put something. At least people are now beginning to realize that it will not work with a bottomless pit.

"Greece must do its homework to become competitive, it requires a new rescue plan or some other way that we do not want to (…)" he says referring to an output the euro area.

Asked if such an outcome is possible, Wolfgang Schäuble responds: "Everything is in the hands of the Greeks themselves. But even in that event, on which no table, they remain an integral part of Europe ".

"We are pleased to offer our assistance, but we should not give others the impression that they have not done enough. Each state is responsible for itself," explains he said.

Many professionals are that economic growth remains low, even zero or negative in the eurozone, and that risks such as governance, yet non-existent for the euro, the French elections and the potential frictions in the Franco-German couple remain. 

But they believe along with the upturn would last – and this became evident endlessly repetitive – the European Central Bank and its refinancing operation long-term (LTRO) three years after which it lent in December nearly 500 billion to European banks, which have escaped and a liquidity crisis.

LTRO a second, scheduled for 29 February should further inflate the first balloon of oxygen.

Under the title "Too good to be true," strategists rate Societe Generale stressed that "illusions are not yet on the brink of extinction, a good amount good news is already in progress ". 

Vincent Chaigneau, head of rates strategy at SG, estimates that the market behaves as if the Greek problem was solved, as if the banks would buy sovereign debt, as if the U.S. economy had gone out of business and even as if China was to be the turbo world.

But it does not exclude the risk appetite remains largely intact over the next two weeks.

This return to the active risquésa permits, among other things, to rate countries 'peripheral' in the euro area to relax dramatically (-170 basis points to 5.6% Italian for 10 years from its high of November, -135 bp for the 10-year Spanish). 

"Debt device should begin to run out of fuel," said Vincent Chaigneau, who feels that if there is agreement on the Greek case, it will be difficult to implement: "The devil is in the dice ; details. "

He advocates an easing of positions on the 'peripheral', as Hans Lorenzen, credit strategist at Citigroup, for whom this "rally will likely continue, and probably reach a level that does not fundamentals. "

The ECLIPSE EUPHORIA Do NOT NEED SECURITY

"Thus, we estimate that over this rally progresses, more investors will take the opportunity to take a stand on quality," says Hans Lorenzen. 

This relaxation of the assets risquésa the distinction of not having removed the need for security and has therefore not resulted in massive outflow of low-risk assets such as loans German government (Bund). The 10-year Bund yield has evolved over the first six weeks of the year between 1.79% and just over 2%.

Hans Lorenzen advises on the market for corporate bonds (corporate credit), to phase out of cyclical sectors and sensitive sectors 'peripheral' to defensive sectors and less exposed to risk device.

Particularly sensitive to the crisis of sovereign debt in euro, the market for bank debt, almost closed in the second half of 2011, walked away on top speed, with premiums (spreads) that have contracted considerably and a primary market that is out of his coma to find a form insolent to the point of welcoming new financial institutions in Italy and Spain. 

Citigroup said that the bank maintains growth forecasts 2012 and 2013 significantly below the consensus.

"This will translate over time by a sharp rise in corporate default rates. Risks Greece, Portugal, the risk of failed auctions or even the French elections may harbor a negative scenario, "he says

. "A victory of Francois Hollande would create great uncertainty in the markets about the commitment of France to the (new) pact in the European budgetary its current form, "he wrote in a note

. However, he said, as quantitative easing (QE) in the United States, the positive effect on asset prices could last well beyond the second LTRO

.. Assuming that ……. this second operation leads banks to borrow as much as in the first, the total would be around € 1.0 billion, enough to provide much the liquidity needs of banks in 2012, of around 800 billion euros

.

Sales of luxury group reached 2.84 billion euros last year, higher than the consensus Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S, which was 2.81 billion.

The maker of Kelly bags and silk scarves in a financial notice indicates that the operating margin should exceed 30% of sales in 2011.

Profitability is expected to reach a new record, after 27.8% in 2010.

The saddler, in which LVMH acquired a stake of 22.3%, said it had operated in the fourth quarter share repurchases totaling 54,926 shares for $ 12.7 million, bringing 1.3 million shares repurchased in 2011 to 286.0 million euros. 

With these figures, Hermes will pay its shareholders an interim dividend of 1.5 euro per share, paid on March 1.

In exchange, with a floating reduced to less than 4%, changing the title at the option of more speculation than on fundamentals of the group. He finished at 263.00 euros Wednesday, signing up 14% since early January, for a market capitalization of 28.4 billion euros.

Bob Dudley, chief executive of the British oil company, said that BP was ready to settle amicably "based on fair terms and reasonable "the 600 lawsuits filed against him by individuals and the Federal government.

The hearings is scheduled Feb. 27 in New Orleans. 

BP, Europe's number two oil in terms of market capitalization, has raised $ 1.8 billion, 43 billion (33 billion euros), the cost of cleaning of the worst oil spill off the U.S..

BP, which said it was almost done cleaning, added that the contributions of its partners involved in the disaster it would end in 2012, one year earlier than expected, payments to a compensation fund of $ 20 billion.

The explosion of the drilling platform Deepwater Horizon, April 20, 2010, was 11 dead and dumped more than four million barrels of oil. 

BP also said it raised its quarterly dividend by one cent, bringing it to eight hundred in favor of strong cash flow generated by the rise in Gross.

"This is a positive sign of confidence in the improved operating performance," said Tony Shepard, analyst specializing in oil at Charles Stanley.

Around 24:50 GMT, BP lost over 1% to 483.8 pence, while the index grouping the values ​​of European oil yielded 0.6%.

For the fourth quarter 2011, BP reported a profit at replacement cost of 7.606 billion dollars, a figure boosted by a contribution of four billion Anadarko linked the oil spill, against 4.614 billion a year earlier. 

Excluding items, the quarterly result was up 14% to $ 4.99 billion, compared with 4.89 billion expected by the market according to Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S.

Royal Dutch Shell announced last week a 18% increase in quarterly profit and ExxonMobil adjusted up 2%.