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Global growth slows and the risk of bankruptcy increases, said Wednesday the French credit insurer Euler Hermes when publishing its first quarter results.

Euler Hermes, which insures companies against the risk of default, has warned its customers that the year 2012 would be difficult.

"Global growth is slowing and corporate bankruptcies are generally increasing," he warns, saying it wants to help its customers meet "the challenges ahead".

"According to Euler Hermes forecasts, 2012 will be a year of consolidation rather than pronounced recovery", explains the group, which estimates that the GDP of the euro area is expected to decline 0.3%. 

"The slowdown in global demand will impact emerging countries, whose growth will be weaker than in recent years," he said, adding that global growth deceleration rer of 2.9% to 2.6% in 2012.

The credit insurer, a subsidiary of Germany's Allianz, also confirmed a slight increase of 3.6%, operating profit in the first quarter to 105.9 million euros with a combined ratio (the key indicator of profitability) of 73.9% against 75.0% during the first three months of 2011.

The net result is however down by 11.9% to 66.4 million due to higher tax expense. 

Euler Hermes had exceptionally on Monday at the request of the Market Authority (AMF) its major first-quarter results, in order to inform its minority shareholders Tuesday before publication of results Allianz, said a spokesman told Reuters.

The Chinese buy their first business aircraft generally opt for a top model, status symbol and able to provide several hours of comfortable flight above the vast e tense of the Celestial Empire, find manufacturers.

The largest business jets, whose price can reach up to $ 70 million to seven million against a small stream, saw their sales rise between 2008 and 2010 while the rest of the market plunged as a result of the financial crisis.

This trend is thus intended to accelerate with the average annual growth of 15% expected the Chinese market by the Canadian manufacturer Bombardier in 20 years, which would take him to 2,470 aircraft in 2030. 

"Chinese buyers plunge directly into the deep end," he told Reuters Stephen Taylor, director of Boeing Business Jets, at the business lounge Ebace held in Geneva until Wednesday.

He considered that large aircraft accounted for over half the Chinese market against 20% globally.

"Traditionally, we start with an entry level plane and a plane through, then a plane that can perform longer flights," said his side Reuters Ernest Edwards, Director Embraer's Executive Jets. "In China, it passes directly from nothing to a large airplane, almost nothing in between."

Cessna (Textron group), which estimates that the Chinese market will be the second in the world within 15 years, does not go wrong. The manufacturer, however, set to medium and light aircraft, this account was created at least three joint ventures with China's Avic, one of them will produce and market worldwide a large airplane size.

"When you have a population of 1.3 billion people and phenomenal growth opportunities, we must plan and invest for 15 years now – if you missed the boat" , told Reuters Ernest Scott, CEO of Cessna.

Ernest Edwards (Embraer) pretended to be amused by the enthusiasm of all nine other manufacturers.

"Embraer is not a novice in the Chinese market. Next year it will make 13 years that we are, we will already be teenagers! "He told Reuters

……. .. China, which had only about 150 jets in late 2011 against more than 11,000 in North America, attended a takeoff of aviation business for two years now, has he added, saying aim to term from 20 to 25% of the market

. Its rival Bombardier said hold 38% of Chinese market is more than its global average of 32%

. DESPERATELY SEEKING DRIVER

… Eldorado ….. universally recognized, the Chinese market, however, several major obstacles that hinder its development, such as control of most airports in the army. 

"If you are a Chinese citizen, you can take off from most airports if they have a Chinese driver, but if you have a foreign national on board, you have access s well as civil airports, "said Ernest Edwards (Embraer).

And if the market for business aircraft takes off as quickly as expected, the shortage of pilots, already real, is expected to increase despite the efforts of authority s to develop training courses.

"If you are a Chinese pilot, you probably prefer to use your license for larger aircraft," said Ernest Edwards. "Plus the unit is large, the better the pay."

"Train drivers and open airspace will not be enough", warns Brad Mottier, responsible for business aviation at GE Aviation. "The Chinese will also need to modernize their air traffic rules to create an environment conducive to rapid growth," he told Reuters.

All manufacturers are particularly attentive to the requirements of this rich clientele.

Dassault Aviation, which has delivered 12 Falcon in China in 2012 against eight in 2011, will open this summer a subsidiary with 25 people and a service center in Beijing.

"The Chinese are just beginning to get used to own a plane," he told Reuters Rodney Williams, commercial director of business aircraft at Bombardier. 

While some Chinese customers have asked to equip their aircraft with a karaoke or a table of my-jong, most opt ​​for home of simple, best candidates for a head of company that will visit its plants – far from the image of wanting to show off his flashy billionaire wealth.

"When you are thinking of buying a plane 31 or $ 32 million, your company must do a half billion dollars in revenue for this to be meaningful," said Ernest Edwards, Embraer .

"If the owner or CEO of this company is a billionaire, who knows? It never tries to learn both."

ASML on Wednesday issued an earnings slightly better than expected first quarter and anticipates a stable revenue in the third quarter, the level of the first half.

The world leader in engraving machines semiconductor anticipates a turnover of 1.2 billion euros in the second quarter after 1.25 billion in the first quarter. Reuters gave the sales of 1.209 billion in the first quarter.

The Dutch group has also reported net earnings of 282 million euros, compared to consensus building on 278 million.

The value of its order backlog was 865 million euros in the first quarter but he finds it difficult to predict what will be the second quarter as orders received are fewer but larger magnitude.

The gold price could rise next year a historic peak above 2,000 dollars an ounce, after 12 years of growth, before tapering off as the monetary policies of major world economies return to normal, said the president of GFMS, a consultancy specializing in metals.

The market is expected to set new records around the beginning of 2013 after difficulties this year due to weaker demand in the physical market and the slowdown investment in bullion, told Reuters Philip Klapwijk, on the occasion of the publication of the annual report on the subject of GFMS. 

He emphasized that the persistent concerns related to the debt crisis in the euro area, as growing expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, should be given to gold, whose price could exceed $ 2,000 per ounce.

But this increase could be short-lived, especially in the event of a rise in U.S. interest rates.

Philip Klapwijk table for 2012 on an average gold price of 1,731 dollars an ounce, in a trading range of 1530-1920 dollars. The ounce of gold in September reached a record high of 1,920.30 dollars per ounce.

GFMS is a group company Thomson Reuters.

The number of jobs créésa been well below expectations in March in the U.S., which suggests that the Fed has leeway for further monetary easing, although the unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 8.2%.

The number of jobs créésa was 120,000 in March, reported the Labor Department Friday, the lowest since October 2011.

Economists polled by Reuters expected a number of 203,000 and an unchanged unemployment rate of 8.3%. 

The index futures on Wall Street fell sharply in reaction to this statistic, as the dollar against the euro and the yen, while the bond market has erased its losses and has trended upward.

The slower employment growth likely reflects an attenuation of the stimulus that had resulted from an unusually mild winter. Job creation in January and February were revised and show just 4,000 new jobs more than the first estimate.

The decline in the unemployment rate attests it a contraction of the activated population. The survey made from separate households, from which is calculated the unemployment rate, also shows a decline in employment.

The slow recovery of the difficult job market is a concern for Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who leaves the possibility to intervene again to stimulate the economy if the unemployment rate ; mage continues to remain too high.

However, members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Federal Reserve have suggested that the need for new measures to support the American economy became less feel the light of improved economic conditions in the United States, according to the minutes of the March meeting of the Fed released this week.

The private sector has received 121.000 new jobs in March, while the public sector lost 1,000.

The industry has experienced one month of new dynamic in employment, 37,000 were created especially for the performance of the car after 31,000 in February.

However, construction lost 7,000 jobs, while in services, employment rose in health in particular. The interim has lost 7,500 jobs, after having won 54,900 in February.

Despite the low number of jobs created, a bad point for President Barack Obama in the context of the November elections, the average hourly earnings rose five cents per month, while the workweek fell to 34.5 hours against 34.6 hours in February.

Greece rejected again on Thursday the deadline for the exchange of debt issued by it, giving investors concerned until April 20 to make a decision .

Athens had said that the conversion of 20.27 billion euros of debt placed on the exchange and corresponding to 72% of securities issued under a system not under Greek law would take place on April 11.

The deadline for investors who refused to participate in the exchange to reverse their decision had already been extended to April 4 by the Greek government, who said no not afford to repay. 

Three options are now open in Athens vis-à-vis investors who continue to refuse to participate in the exchange: to continue to service the loans in question, to die be on these securities may offer a trial or improved while ensuring fair treatment for investors who have already accepted the exchange.

The Greek authorities have not yet decided but none of the tracks envisaged undermine the exchange agreed last month by private creditors, which conditioned a new slice Country Assistance.

Meetings of bondholders were held from March 27 to 29 to determine the contribution of 36 lines. The decision was adjourned for seven of them, representing an outstanding facial 2.45 billion euros and for which the deadline of April 18 was also ; postponed to April 20.

March 12, Athens had exchanged sovereign bonds governed by Greek law with a face value of 177 billion euros against new titles, with the resulting loss of value of 74% for de Holders of bonds.

Turkey has maintained a growth rate near the Chinese last year. The crisis in the eurozone is expected to slow to just 4% in 2012 before an expected rebound next year.

A little slack in the fourth quarter prevented the Turkish economy as well as to China in 2011. It has not been less vigorous growth of 8.5% over the last year, announced Monday the statistical institute, TUIK, against 9.2% for the Middle Kingdom. The government expected a growth of about 8.0% in 2011. In the first three quarters, it was 9.6%. But slowed to 5.2% in the fourth.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita reached 10,444 dollars (780 euros) or $ 365 more than in 2010, according to the TUIK. "The growth rate is probably the second highest in the world, after China", welcomed the Minister for Science, Industry and Technology Nihat Ergun, was quoted by the Anatolia news agency.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek for his part stressed that the rate was in line with government expectations, which in a challenging global economy is trying to organize a "soft landing" of its economy. "The figures in the last quarter show that the soft landing process continues at a steady pace, in line with government objectives," said Mr. Simsek to Anatolia.

The government forecasts growth of 4% in 2012 in the wake of the crisis in the eurozone but believes that this slowdown will be short lived. In 2013 and 2014, Ankara expects a 5% rate. "With the good growth performance and discipline policies implemented in the process of improving indices of the Turkish public debt continues," said Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan was quoted as saying.

"While concerns grow about public finance from developed countries, the improvement in Turkey's public deficit and debt burden will be important to maintain confidence and sustainable growth based on private sector demand "added Babacan. Turkey, a country of about 73 million people, political power and regional 17th world economy had grown by 8.9% in 2010.

The Scellier for a tax reduction on investments in rental housing will disappear at the end of the year. Should we still buy them? What do the presidential candidates? Can we really live without it? Our responses.

End of 2012, the exit Scellier, but this time no replacement in sight. Established in 2009, the device-which succeeded other similar laws (Robien Borloo Périssol) – was a tax cut to every purchaser of a new home ready to rent it to nine years. Since 2011, control of public expenditure requires the rate of tax reduction has ceased to be planed. 25% of its creation, it rose from 22% last year to 13% for 2012.  

"It is a law in the drawer as the earlier devices, ie that is closed as soon as you need it anymore," says David Charlet, President Anacofi, the National Association of Financial Advisors. This is the case for the government that points two things. First, the device is considered too expensive. The budgetary cost was estimated at 120 million euros for 2010 and 300 million euros in 2011, according to the report of the Finance Committee. An expense that recurs every year over the life of the device.

The other problem is that the investment subsidy has had perverse effects. The Scellier indeed originally applied to all new housing, which led developers to build where the price of land was cheap … even when there was no demand to live there. Hence many business owners in difficulty because of not finding tenants. To try to remedy this, the government has also established a risk map and lowered the rental rent ceilings. Which does today, "about 35% of housing Scellier are located in areas with rental risks," explains Sandrine Levasseur Economist at OFCE.

Are there still bargains in Scellier in 2012?

In this context, the Scellier Offret he still favorable opportunities. Perhaps. But necessarily fewer. "The supply Scellier becoming increasingly rare" recognizes Dacquin Olivier, Director Development and Communications at Heritage Bank and Real Estate. Especially as to maximize returns on their investment, customers must buy a new home BBB (low energy) to qualify for the rate of tax reduction up to 13%. For other units (conventional and intermediate), the reduction rate is lower. " Furthermore, new price caps per square meter to calculate the tax cut were fixed by decree. In the end, "combine an investment in good quality, well positioned, not too expensive to optimize investment in Scellier is a rare commodity." Including zone B1, ie in the center of large cities. "The Scellier is end of life, we are at end of cycle" adds the president of the Anacofi. One thing is certain, this is the last time to enjoy it, but "at the same time he is the coup of buying in a market where demand is non-existent?" he asks.

How the Presidential candidates they planning to offset the end of Scellier?

For now, no candidate has announced equivalent measure for investors, requires fiscal discipline. The revival of the construction is supposed to pass through other means. Francois Hollande proposes to double the ceiling of the booklet A. Objective: collect 15 to 20 billion euros in additional savings to increase the production of social housing. "This is a good measure if the savings is captured in a stable manner, it will automatically give more money to social housing. But social housing is not everything," said M.Charlet. As for the implementation of land disposal of the State, the question is "property that is under the foot and those that can potentially be used in housing" asked the latter. Also on this measure, "if municipalities sell their property, they must still meet there financially," added David Charlet.

For its by Nicolas Sarkozy is proposing to increase by 30% the rights to build, "This will affect the periphery, the effects will be much more limited in dense areas," said Jean-Michel Ciuch, president of consulting Immogroup, a center of analysis and expertise in real estate. He added "this will have an inflationary effect in the short and medium term."

"Thanks to Scellier, the state took the money of the owners, he has not committed" to M.Charlet. "Through measures such as doubling the ceiling of the booklet A, the provision of state property, or increase the building rights, the state wants to regain control," he explains. "But do we have any idea how many new homes can be built without the Scellier?". We can adopt another schema only shown by the public, remains to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Finally, remove the Scellier will result in job supressions several private economic agents in the sector of building and construction.

Can we do without such a device Scellier?

For scholars of management consulting heritage, the answer is unsurprisingly negative. But they advocate "a more effective framework of law strice" coupled "to lower tax benefits," said David Charlet. Jean Michel Ciuch, one thing is certain, even if there are no plans to replace the Scellier, a reflection will certainly incur after the presidential election, because the rental market is an essential key in the overall balance. " It also advocates a better box, but "we need a successor to Scellier," said the CEO of Immogroup, proposing to extend it to the former, a somewhat forgotten market according to him. "This should benefit personal and institutional, "continues Mr Ciuch

. However, no need to" doping ", for Dacquin Olivier, Director of Development and Marketing Heritage Bank and Real Estate. "Look at the market of the former, he is doing very well without Scellier". "By abandoning the Scellier we return to the fundamentals of real estate investment or a long term investment heritage, and not an investment at all costs, only worn by profitability," he concludes.

Borrowing the longest to date of European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF), a maturity of 20 years, has generated a strong demand Monday from investors, causing a revision of the spread code.

Demand exceeds 4.5 billion euros after closing of order book, according to a source familiar with the matter, while the borrowing that must total 1.5 billion euros at most.

Consequence of this strong demand, the spread code has been tightened to 115 basis points over the swap curve, against 120 bps at the origin.

The EFSF intends to seek the bond and money markets this week with this show, as well as a benchmark loan to five years and an investment of two billion euros good six months. 

The issuer has mandated BNP Paribas, DZ Bank and Commerzbank for this show, which increases by 10 years the maximum maturity of the broadcasts EFSF.

The three banks held a teleconference Monday morning between the issuer and investors for their opinion on a very long-term debt.

This is the first time the EFSF over 10 years for an operation that must be priced in the course of the day and whose spread code should give a coupon of about 4%, a way that might satisfy insurers, buyers of long paper.

The latest issues of public borrowers have been very successful. Belgium has placed last week four billion euros of paper 20, who has created a demand of 6.4 billion euros. Insurers have taken up to 42% of the shares.

The EFSF considering an investment in 30 years but it seems to have favored a shorter maturity and a little safer.

"It's a questionable choice difficult," said a banker who does not participate in the program. "No a priori difficult to put 1.5 billion euros and the spread code is correct. It would perhaps have gone further in the timing or amount."

Economic growth of the G20 countries slowed to 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2011, after +0.9% in the third, according to preliminary figures released Wednesday by the OECD .

Over the whole of 2011, growth stood at 2.8% in the 20 largest world economies, a marked slowdown compared to 2010 (5.0%).

These figures mask differences: the U.S., growth was 0.7% in the fourth quarter (+0.5% in the third), it increased significantly in India and Indonesia sia, and it slowed to 2.0% in China (2.3% in the third).

In Japan, growth was down 0.2% after a strong rebound (+1.7%) in the third quarter. 

In the EU, as in the euro area, GDP fell 0.3% in the fourth quarter, the first decline since the second quarter of 2009, after 0.3 % and 0.1% in the third quarter.