May 20




The technical rebound that would make sense after the recent decline on Wall Street will perhaps not be because investors are still wondering about Greece and on economic growth and the corporate earnings season and its possible surprises coming to an end.

The Standard & Poor's, the benchmark for fund managers, Friday fell below 1,300 points, after a sixth straight session of decline.

The S & P lost 4.3% over the past week, its biggest weekly decline since the beginning of the year. The Dow Jones at the same time lost 3.5% and the Nasdaq Composite 5.3%. The S & P lost 7.3% since early May

In addition, the first trading day of chaotic Facebook has made a bad impression.

G8 leaders have spoken this weekend for the maintenance of Greece in the euro area and pledged to take all necessary measures to revive the economy, recognizing that the same revenue could not be applied everywhere.

"The market is extremely oversold. Nevertheless, all major indicators remain on sell signals," said Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis Corp in a note published Friday.

"We expect a significant rebound but short soon. But at this stage, unless major changes in our indicators, it could be a rebound in a market downtrend. "

…… .. Among the economic indicators of the coming week, investors will look at existing home sales for April, Tuesday, expected to 4.60 million units annualized, against 4.48 million in March

. The next will be published the new home sales. There should be 7,000 more than the 328,000 annualized in March … The

…… weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders are expected for Thursday while the index of consumer sentiment published by Reuters and University of Michigan to be released Friday. are expected flat in May compared with April

.

May 13




Hawker Beechcraft has emerged by the end of the year of its investment under the protection of Chapter 11 of U.S. bankruptcy law, after which its creditors become its main shareholders, said Sunday its CEO Shawn Vick.

The Boeing, co-owned by the private equity arm of Goldman Sachs and Onex, concluded on May 3 an agreement with its creditors for erasing about $ 2.5 billion in debt under Chapter 11, which aims to allow business to continue trading.

"This debt will no longer hamper our business," said Shawn Vick at a news conference at EBACE business aviation in Geneva.

"The procedure of Chapter 11 should not be confused with the liquidation or bankruptcy. There is too much value in Hawker Beechcraft for this to happen, "he said, denouncing the" misinformation "and" speculation "

. Shawn Vick

stressed that the group would continue to honor its orders and anticipated output of the procedure of Chapter 11 "before the end of the year" …

…… Goldman Sachs Capital Partners, the private equity funds of the bank, and Onex, the first Canadian company takeovers, had bought Raytheon Aircraft Raytheon in early 2007 and were renamed Hawker Beechcraft

. Under Chapter 11, the group of Wichita (Kansas) will have their money transferred to some of its creditors, Goldman Sachs and Onex retaining only a minority stake. 

Acquisition, made at the height of the bubble and in the hope of a growing market, came at the wrong time. The 2008 financial crisis and severe economic recession that ensued led to a fall in business jet deliveries of small and medium – the segment of choice Hawker Beechcraft.

Asked about a possible reduction in its range which would reduce the complexity of its production, said Shawn Vick Reuters that it was not the order of day.

"This company is more than capable of building many aircraft in all segments," he said.

Although it acknowledged that competitors had benefited from his troubles to him take market share, it highlighted a trend of more favorable order in 2011. 

He also expressed confidence in the ability to remain independent at Hawker Beechcraft:

"We have no other project to grow the company on a freelance basis," he said to Reuters. "That does not surprise if others were interested in the company, but more than able to stand on both feet."

May 4




BNP Paribas, which posted first quarter net profit boosted by a gain on the sale of a block of Klépierre, said Friday be able to complete its plan to reduce the size of its balance sheet this summer.

The French bank said it had to end in March made 80% of its plan, launched at the beginning of last fall at the higher of the debt crisis in the euro area, after be reduced by 63 billion euros of its risk-weighted risk, including 16 billion over the first three months of the year.

"We can lock him in the summer," said Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, the CEO of BNP Paribas, in an interview with Reuters. 

At the Paris Stock Exchange, BNP Paribas, which had opened lower, was up slightly from 0.43% to 29.22 euros at 9:29, outperforming the bank Europé in (0.29%).

Some managers pointed out that despite good results on bills in the first quarter, the French banking stocks suffering from uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment and concerns over the euro area . In France, banks are also under threat of a major reform of the sector if the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande wins the presidential election Sunday.

"I found good results, in almost all divisions. Solvency is still a very important point," said Yohan Salleron, manager at Mandarine Gestion. "Nevertheless, we see some negative reaction, linked to the problem of the banking room, especially on the French market where investors expect a little clarification side of politics. "

NO NEW DISCONTINUED POSTS

Are feared while new waves of industrial restructuring after the presidential election, particularly in the banking sector, BNP Paribas ensures not to provide new measures of job cuts after presidential election.

Nearly 1,400 positions are already about to be deleted in the banking and investment banking. The voluntary separation plan should be completed by end June

In the first quarter, net earnings from BNP Paribas was up by nearly 10%, to 2.86 billion euros, after integrating in its accounts a gain 1.8 billion on the sale of an interest in the property group Klépierre.

The French bank said that excluding special items, net income for the period spring down 22% to two billion euros.

According to the Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S, analysts on average expected a net profit of 2.344 million euros. 

For comparison, Societe Generale reported Thursday a net profit of 732 million euros for the first three months of the year, down 20%, supported by the results of its operations on interest rates, currencies and commodities.

"TOO SOON" FOR A TARGET ROE

Hired as many European banks in a program to reduce the size of its balance sheet and strengthen its financial strength, BNP Paribas is to end on March 1 capital ratio 'hard' to 10.4%.

The bank said the coup had "substantially" exceeded the goal of equity of 9% required by the EBA to late June. 

Due to lack of visibility on the new regulatory environment, it refuses to give a target return on equity (ROE) for the future. This amounts to 11.5% at end March.

"It is too early to give this kind of goal," said Jean-Laurent Bonnafé. "We still need clarification on the new regulation on liquidity ratios on capital requirements."

If he refused to make any comment on the election issue for banks, the CEO of BNP Paribas notes, however, that Francois Hollande and the president-candidate Nicolas Sarkozy pledged to fight the deficit and to support growth.

May 3




Of macroeconomic indicators below expectations in the euro area and the U.S. pushed the stock markets and the euro Wednesday, while bonds were quite popular . The close of stock markets in Europe, however, has carried on diverging paths.

In Paris the CAC 40 closed up 0.42% or 13.53 points to 3226.33 points. In Frankfurt, however, the DAX fell 0.75%. In London, the FTSE has lost 0.93%.

Values, UBS ended up 3.7%. The Swiss bank has published a quarterly net income reduced by more than half by an exceptional charge but strong results from its flagship private banking seem likely to strengthen its strategic ; gy refocusing.

BSkyB gained 1.5%. The first UK pay-TV on Wednesday released a record operating profit in the first nine months of its fiscal year, a growing number of customers who subscribe to its services telephony and broadband networks.

Side indicators, industrial activity in the euro area contracted again in April while the slowdown in the periphery appears to be spreading to France and Germany , according to final data from Markit survey of purchasing managers.

The unemployment rate in the euro zone was 10.9% in March, its highest level in 15 years, mainly because of increases in Italy and Spain. 

Moreover, job creation in the private sector last month in the U.S. proved well below expectations, according to the results of the monthly survey ADP. It was created 119,000 jobs in April, while the market expected 177,000 additional jobs.

The ADP survey is considered a leading indicator of monthly statistics on employment figures which are expected Friday. Economists polled by Reuters expect 170,000 jobs created in the private and the public but non-agricultural sector in April after 120,000 net new jobs announced in March.

In addition, industrial orders recorded in March in the U.S. their largest decline in three years mainly because of a decline in demand for equipment in the transport sector.

The euro fell for the third consecutive session against the dollar. It was a moment touched 1.3121 dollars, its lowest in more than a week.

Traders await a possible signal that the ECB must make its decision Thursday monetary policy. Political uncertainties related to the elections in France and Greece could bring the European currency below the $ 1.30.

The meeting should not lead to dramatic decisions because interest rates of the ECB are already at historic lows and many officials in Germany and elsewhere in the euro area, believe that we now expect that the massive injections of liquidity in recent months take effect.

Apr 26




The idea put forward by the Socialist candidate is gaining ground. Mario Draghi, head of the ECB, also argues in favor of a pact to support the activity. But not necessarily with the same means … The PS candidate for president, Francois Hollande.

Just days after receiving the approval of several economists, François Hollande, the Socialist candidate for French Presidential Wednesday received unexpected European support in its application for a Growth Pact, and presented in the wake of his runways renegotiation of the treaty European budget.

"The day after the election, if I have received a mandate, I will address a memorandum to heads of state on the renegotiation of the Treaty" on European public finance, said Francois Hollande, given the polls largely winning the second round the presidential election to be held on May 6, against the incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy.  

This treaty was signed in March after it was negotiated under the leadership of Angela Merkel torque-Nicolas Sarkozy. This is a text of strict budgetary discipline, which aims to end the debt crisis in the eurozone. The Socialist candidate, in the lead Sunday in the first round of the presidential election with 28.63% ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy (27.18%), pleads for weeks for a renegotiation of the text, in order to add a growth program .

"The serious budget yes, austerity in life, not," insists the Socialist candidate. The good surprise for Francois Hollande came Wednesday in Brussels. In front of MEPs, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), Italy's Mario Draghi, has admitted that Europe was not sufficient for growth. "We have a budget pact (…), we must go back and make a pact for growth," he said.  

"Things are well advanced (…) ideas cheminent and the French vote is probably much," said Francois Hollande in Paris, during a press conference. And he detailed his proposals: "creation of eurobonds (European bonds, note), not to pool the debts but to finance industrial projects of infrastructure"; "liberate more funding opportunities for the European Investment Bank" (EIB), "creation of a tax on financial transactions"; mobilization "remnants of European structural funds not used today to support projects".

But it will convince the German chancellor, with whom he sees the "firm but friendly discussions". "Is that it may lead to clash? We are not there to create conflict, but not to cover different interpretations or dissimilar positions," he judged. Angela Merkel has kept his distance Wednesday with Francois Hollande, while recognizing the need to stimulate growth.

"We need growth and growth form of sustainable initiatives, not just economic programs – which still dig the debt – but growth, as Mario Draghi said today, as structural reforms, "she said. However, the leader of the euro zone, Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker, called in turn for a "growth strategy" for restarting the European economy.  

Francois Hollande was snubbed for weeks by conservative European leaders, Angela Merkel in the lead, who refused to receive it before the election because of his opposition to the treaty budget. President Nicolas Sarkozy warned since the beginning of the campaign against his opponent's economic program, he considers wasteful and he says it could trigger a wave of market speculation.

Francois Hollande "is a serious left, there will be fiscal responsibility, we will reduce the state deficit and we will do in 2013, passing below 3%" of gross domestic product (GDP), Pierre Moscovici said Wednesday, his campaign manager.

Apr 9




Wall Street closed lower Monday for the fourth straight session, in response to poor employment statistics published last Friday.

The score, which was successfully reduced its losses later in the afternoon, has again worsened in recent transactions and indices show declines of 1% at least.

The Dow Jones finished for his share below its moving average of 15 days for the first time since Dec. 19.

The S & P 500 hit a low of more than three weeks in session but ended well above its moving average of 50 days near 1371.

The Dow Jones lost 130.55 points (1.00%) to 12,929.59. The S & P-500 gives 15.88 points (1.14%) to 1,382.20. The Nasdaq Composite Index drops 33.42 points (1.08%) to 3,047.08.

The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in March, which should extend the debate on the need for the Fed to adopt new measures to support growth, although the unemployment rate to 8.2%, is at its lowest for three years.

After modest losses of last week, the thresholds of support emerged from 1375 to 1380 for the S & P, notes Scott Davies (Brown Brothers Harriman).

"We reacted to weak employment numbers and now we will go to the results of companies, especially banks later this week," said Paul Nolte at the meeting (Dearborn Partners). 

Statistics raise questions about the ability of U.S. to boost global growth, at a time when fears resurface vis-à-vis the debt situation in Europe and China, why some are beginning to fear a crash landing.

A statistic of producer prices very dull rekindles the hypothesis that slower growth has become the cardinal problem of the Chinese government, not inflation.

But this context also the recovery hopes of the Federal Reserve launched a third program of quantitative easing (QE3).

The losses were brought mainly by financial, including the S & P lost 1.61%, and industrial, whose index yielded 1.61% e also. 

The "season" of corporate earnings is launched this week with Alcoa, as usual, open the show after the close Tuesday.

AOL jumped 43.3%. AOL announced Monday the sale of over 800 patents to Microsoft for a little over a billion dollars.

Microsoft has lost 1.33%.

Mar 22




The Scellier for a tax reduction on investments in rental housing will disappear at the end of the year. Should we still buy them? What do the presidential candidates? Can we really live without it? Our responses.

End of 2012, the exit Scellier, but this time no replacement in sight. Established in 2009, the device-which succeeded other similar laws (Robien Borloo Périssol) – was a tax cut to every purchaser of a new home ready to rent it to nine years. Since 2011, control of public expenditure requires the rate of tax reduction has ceased to be planed. 25% of its creation, it rose from 22% last year to 13% for 2012.  

"It is a law in the drawer as the earlier devices, ie that is closed as soon as you need it anymore," says David Charlet, President Anacofi, the National Association of Financial Advisors. This is the case for the government that points two things. First, the device is considered too expensive. The budgetary cost was estimated at 120 million euros for 2010 and 300 million euros in 2011, according to the report of the Finance Committee. An expense that recurs every year over the life of the device.

The other problem is that the investment subsidy has had perverse effects. The Scellier indeed originally applied to all new housing, which led developers to build where the price of land was cheap … even when there was no demand to live there. Hence many business owners in difficulty because of not finding tenants. To try to remedy this, the government has also established a risk map and lowered the rental rent ceilings. Which does today, "about 35% of housing Scellier are located in areas with rental risks," explains Sandrine Levasseur Economist at OFCE.

Are there still bargains in Scellier in 2012?

In this context, the Scellier Offret he still favorable opportunities. Perhaps. But necessarily fewer. "The supply Scellier becoming increasingly rare" recognizes Dacquin Olivier, Director Development and Communications at Heritage Bank and Real Estate. Especially as to maximize returns on their investment, customers must buy a new home BBB (low energy) to qualify for the rate of tax reduction up to 13%. For other units (conventional and intermediate), the reduction rate is lower. " Furthermore, new price caps per square meter to calculate the tax cut were fixed by decree. In the end, "combine an investment in good quality, well positioned, not too expensive to optimize investment in Scellier is a rare commodity." Including zone B1, ie in the center of large cities. "The Scellier is end of life, we are at end of cycle" adds the president of the Anacofi. One thing is certain, this is the last time to enjoy it, but "at the same time he is the coup of buying in a market where demand is non-existent?" he asks.

How the Presidential candidates they planning to offset the end of Scellier?

For now, no candidate has announced equivalent measure for investors, requires fiscal discipline. The revival of the construction is supposed to pass through other means. Francois Hollande proposes to double the ceiling of the booklet A. Objective: collect 15 to 20 billion euros in additional savings to increase the production of social housing. "This is a good measure if the savings is captured in a stable manner, it will automatically give more money to social housing. But social housing is not everything," said M.Charlet. As for the implementation of land disposal of the State, the question is "property that is under the foot and those that can potentially be used in housing" asked the latter. Also on this measure, "if municipalities sell their property, they must still meet there financially," added David Charlet.

For its by Nicolas Sarkozy is proposing to increase by 30% the rights to build, "This will affect the periphery, the effects will be much more limited in dense areas," said Jean-Michel Ciuch, president of consulting Immogroup, a center of analysis and expertise in real estate. He added "this will have an inflationary effect in the short and medium term."

"Thanks to Scellier, the state took the money of the owners, he has not committed" to M.Charlet. "Through measures such as doubling the ceiling of the booklet A, the provision of state property, or increase the building rights, the state wants to regain control," he explains. "But do we have any idea how many new homes can be built without the Scellier?". We can adopt another schema only shown by the public, remains to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Finally, remove the Scellier will result in job supressions several private economic agents in the sector of building and construction.

Can we do without such a device Scellier?

For scholars of management consulting heritage, the answer is unsurprisingly negative. But they advocate "a more effective framework of law strice" coupled "to lower tax benefits," said David Charlet. Jean Michel Ciuch, one thing is certain, even if there are no plans to replace the Scellier, a reflection will certainly incur after the presidential election, because the rental market is an essential key in the overall balance. " It also advocates a better box, but "we need a successor to Scellier," said the CEO of Immogroup, proposing to extend it to the former, a somewhat forgotten market according to him. "This should benefit personal and institutional, "continues Mr Ciuch

. However, no need to" doping ", for Dacquin Olivier, Director of Development and Marketing Heritage Bank and Real Estate. "Look at the market of the former, he is doing very well without Scellier". "By abandoning the Scellier we return to the fundamentals of real estate investment or a long term investment heritage, and not an investment at all costs, only worn by profitability," he concludes.

Mar 8




Free improved sales and operating income of its wireline business last year while accelerating investments in its mobile service, launched in early January messes already the whole sector.

The offers at bargain prices by Free Mobile unveiled its competitors have forced up France Telecom, SFR and Bouygues Telecom to reduce tariffs of part of their bids to try to limit the exodus of their subscribers.

The speculation is rife, since the number of subscribers drawn by entering the fourth, recently estimated at 1.5 million by the CEO of France Telecom. 

The parent Iliad does not figure in its earnings release issued on Thursday, making only a state of "tremendous success" of its mobile business trading in early 2012.

The group confirmed its short and medium term, including a forecast of market share of fixed broadband 25% long term.

As always fixed, the group expects growth in sales of over 5% in 2012 with a cumulative free cash flow of ADSL over 1.1 billion euros between 2010 and 2012.

At group level, Free expects a sharp increase in sales in 2012, and a turnover exceeding 4 billion euros in 2015. 

Over the whole of 2011, the group led by Xavier Niel posted a turnover of 2.12 billion euros (+4%) and operating profit (EBITDA) of 833 million (4% well).

Analysts on average expected revenue of 2.14 billion and EBITDA of 861.4 million euros, according to Thomson Reuters I / B / E / S.

Net profit before exceptional items fell by his side from 7% to EUR 255 million.

Iliad plans to pay a dividend of 0.37 euro for 2011, down from the dividend of EUR 0.40 set in 2010.

The stock closed Wednesday up 0.39% to 98.75 euros. Since the beginning of the year, it was up 3.6% compared to the decrease of 3.53% of the telecoms sector index.

Mar 6




Renault expects to achieve over 47% of its sales outside Europe in 2012 and reach the 50% in 2014, said Tuesday the group commercial director of the diamond.

"It has been said that in 2012 there would be 47%, I think it will be over," said Jerome Stoll told Reuters during the show press days of the Geneva Motor Show.

"For me in 2014, it will be half of our sales outside Europe," he added.

Renault has achieved 37% of its sales overseas in 2010 and 43% in 2011, against only 17% ten years ago.

For the current year, the group maintained its forecast of sales growth through global markets such as Brazil, Russia and India, and despite European market expected a decrease of 3 to 4% by Renault. 

"It is true that the beginning of the year is lower in Europe than previously thought. I wait a bit to see if it requires that redefine the pre ; visions market over the year, "said Jerome Stoll.

Mar 2




Cements French said Friday the annual results degraded by the impact of the economic crisis on its business but the subsidiary of Italcementi estimated that productivity gains should promote "a slight ; manages growth "of its operations in 2012.

The group declined by 20.2% of its gross annual operating income to 702.4 million euros, while its consolidated net sales declined 3.8% to 3886.3 million.

Sales volumes throughout the year, on a historical basis, were down 1.4% in the cement business, to 42.4 million tons, and 5 , 2% in the aggregate, to 34.8 million tonnes.

The Italian subsidiary of the leading cement proposes to pay under a 2011 dividend unchanged at three euros per share. 

In 2012, French Cement predicts stable sales volumes with an improvement in North America and Morocco, and decreases in southern Europe.

The group believes that prices should evolve more favorably and partially offset the rising costs of energy and the impact of inflation on fixed costs.

"In addition, programs to improve productivity launched in 2011 should allow a slight increase in operating results in 2012," he says in a statement.

The French action Cement closed Friday at 56.7 euros (-0.32%) showing a market capitalization of 2.03 billion euros. It decreased 5.2% since the beginning of the year after a loss of 17.5% in 2011.

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