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The technical rebound that would make sense after the recent decline on Wall Street will perhaps not be because investors are still wondering about Greece and on economic growth and the corporate earnings season and its possible surprises coming to an end.

The Standard & Poor's, the benchmark for fund managers, Friday fell below 1,300 points, after a sixth straight session of decline.

The S & P lost 4.3% over the past week, its biggest weekly decline since the beginning of the year. The Dow Jones at the same time lost 3.5% and the Nasdaq Composite 5.3%. The S & P lost 7.3% since early May

In addition, the first trading day of chaotic Facebook has made a bad impression.

G8 leaders have spoken this weekend for the maintenance of Greece in the euro area and pledged to take all necessary measures to revive the economy, recognizing that the same revenue could not be applied everywhere.

"The market is extremely oversold. Nevertheless, all major indicators remain on sell signals," said Larry McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis Corp in a note published Friday.

"We expect a significant rebound but short soon. But at this stage, unless major changes in our indicators, it could be a rebound in a market downtrend. "

…… .. Among the economic indicators of the coming week, investors will look at existing home sales for April, Tuesday, expected to 4.60 million units annualized, against 4.48 million in March

. The next will be published the new home sales. There should be 7,000 more than the 328,000 annualized in March … The

…… weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders are expected for Thursday while the index of consumer sentiment published by Reuters and University of Michigan to be released Friday. are expected flat in May compared with April

.

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Global growth slows and the risk of bankruptcy increases, said Wednesday the French credit insurer Euler Hermes when publishing its first quarter results.

Euler Hermes, which insures companies against the risk of default, has warned its customers that the year 2012 would be difficult.

"Global growth is slowing and corporate bankruptcies are generally increasing," he warns, saying it wants to help its customers meet "the challenges ahead".

"According to Euler Hermes forecasts, 2012 will be a year of consolidation rather than pronounced recovery", explains the group, which estimates that the GDP of the euro area is expected to decline 0.3%. 

"The slowdown in global demand will impact emerging countries, whose growth will be weaker than in recent years," he said, adding that global growth deceleration rer of 2.9% to 2.6% in 2012.

The credit insurer, a subsidiary of Germany's Allianz, also confirmed a slight increase of 3.6%, operating profit in the first quarter to 105.9 million euros with a combined ratio (the key indicator of profitability) of 73.9% against 75.0% during the first three months of 2011.

The net result is however down by 11.9% to 66.4 million due to higher tax expense. 

Euler Hermes had exceptionally on Monday at the request of the Market Authority (AMF) its major first-quarter results, in order to inform its minority shareholders Tuesday before publication of results Allianz, said a spokesman told Reuters.

The new French government has a very limited room for maneuver in fiscal policy due to "insecurity" of the economy and finance of the country, said ; Tuesday near the German Chancellor.

Peter Altmaier, charged with enforcing voting discipline within the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) Angela Merkel, said he was disappointed with the victory of socialist Francois Hollande to the presidential election in France but confident in the fact that the EU should continue to make debt reduction a priority.

"The economy of France and the country's finances remain in a precarious state," said Peter Altmaier to the press. 

"Any country that tries to pursue a policy of increasing its supply deficits would quickly back to the markets and interest rates would increase," he added ;. "There is no flexibility."

François Hollande promised during his campaign including increasing the minimum wage, create jobs in the field of education and return to the rising age of retirement.

Many analysts expect him to return part or all of these promises after conducting an audit of the finances of France, to be completed ; next month.

Peter Altmaier said he was confident that once the French parliamentary elections over, it would be possible for Berlin to reach a compromise with Paris to reaffirm "once and for all "that the reduction of budget deficits is the only way forward for Europe.

BNP Paribas, which posted first quarter net profit boosted by a gain on the sale of a block of Klépierre, said Friday be able to complete its plan to reduce the size of its balance sheet this summer.

The French bank said it had to end in March made 80% of its plan, launched at the beginning of last fall at the higher of the debt crisis in the euro area, after be reduced by 63 billion euros of its risk-weighted risk, including 16 billion over the first three months of the year.

"We can lock him in the summer," said Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, the CEO of BNP Paribas, in an interview with Reuters. 

At the Paris Stock Exchange, BNP Paribas, which had opened lower, was up slightly from 0.43% to 29.22 euros at 9:29, outperforming the bank Europé in (0.29%).

Some managers pointed out that despite good results on bills in the first quarter, the French banking stocks suffering from uncertainty about the macroeconomic environment and concerns over the euro area . In France, banks are also under threat of a major reform of the sector if the Socialist candidate Francois Hollande wins the presidential election Sunday.

"I found good results, in almost all divisions. Solvency is still a very important point," said Yohan Salleron, manager at Mandarine Gestion. "Nevertheless, we see some negative reaction, linked to the problem of the banking room, especially on the French market where investors expect a little clarification side of politics. "

NO NEW DISCONTINUED POSTS

Are feared while new waves of industrial restructuring after the presidential election, particularly in the banking sector, BNP Paribas ensures not to provide new measures of job cuts after presidential election.

Nearly 1,400 positions are already about to be deleted in the banking and investment banking. The voluntary separation plan should be completed by end June

In the first quarter, net earnings from BNP Paribas was up by nearly 10%, to 2.86 billion euros, after integrating in its accounts a gain 1.8 billion on the sale of an interest in the property group Klépierre.

The French bank said that excluding special items, net income for the period spring down 22% to two billion euros.

According to the Thomson Reuters consensus I / B / E / S, analysts on average expected a net profit of 2.344 million euros. 

For comparison, Societe Generale reported Thursday a net profit of 732 million euros for the first three months of the year, down 20%, supported by the results of its operations on interest rates, currencies and commodities.

"TOO SOON" FOR A TARGET ROE

Hired as many European banks in a program to reduce the size of its balance sheet and strengthen its financial strength, BNP Paribas is to end on March 1 capital ratio 'hard' to 10.4%.

The bank said the coup had "substantially" exceeded the goal of equity of 9% required by the EBA to late June. 

Due to lack of visibility on the new regulatory environment, it refuses to give a target return on equity (ROE) for the future. This amounts to 11.5% at end March.

"It is too early to give this kind of goal," said Jean-Laurent Bonnafé. "We still need clarification on the new regulation on liquidity ratios on capital requirements."

If he refused to make any comment on the election issue for banks, the CEO of BNP Paribas notes, however, that Francois Hollande and the president-candidate Nicolas Sarkozy pledged to fight the deficit and to support growth.

The Lafarge cement and mining group Anglo American will need to make significant disposals to get clearance from the British authorities for their proposed joint venture in building materials, a condition which spe London ; it will re emergence of new market entrants.

Without these divestitures, estimates the Competition Commission, the rapprochement between the two companies would hurt competition in Britain.

Lafarge and Anglo American had announced in February 2011 a proposed merger of their building materials in the United Kingdom in a joint venture equally owned. 

This agreement, aimed at consolidating all activities of cement, aggregates, ready-mixed concrete and asphalt work of both groups in the UK market, should enable the French group to reinforce the Channel.

On February 21, the UK Competition Commission had already indicated that in his view, the merger of the two groups, whose combined turnover on the basis of 2010 was 2.1 billion euros, with potential consequences for competition and that, to remedy the situation, both partners should sell assets. 

Tuesday, she said that these transfers were to cover "a significant portfolio of operations" including in particular a cement factory, two asphalt plants, or a career, a set that would allow the entry of a new competitor on the market.

Lafarge and Anglo American have each in turn welcomed the decision. The French group said he was "confident" in their ability to meet the condition set.

Analysts believe that these sales could attract a significant number of potential buyers despite the ambient climate of austerity in Britain, which could weigh on infrastructure spending.

HOLCIM AND Breedon, POTENTIAL BUYERS

The British cement market is currently dominated by Lafarge, Tarmac, a subsidiary of Anglo, Mexican Cemex and Hanson, controlled by Germany's HeidelbergCement.

Many analysts expect that the Swiss Holcim, already present in aggregates and concrete ready in the UK but not in the cement, could be a possible acquirer cement assets concerned. 

Breedon Aggregates, leading independent player in the UK market for aggregates has confirmed his side would look at the assets being sold.

Around 2:45 p.m. GMT, Anglo American gained 1.77% to 24.10 pounds, while the FTSE 100 London Stock Exchange, only open market in Europe in May 1, earned 1.19%.

The timing and terms of sales required by the Competition Commission will be clarified after publication of the final report on the project. 

"We believe these important assignments will help protect the interests of all customers in these key markets, which particularly important when studying how Construction is funded by public money, "said Roger Witcomb, the Chairman of the Committee of Inquiry into the Anglo-Lafarge case.

Anglo American, the approximation provided between Tarmac and Lafarge's UK business was an intermediate phase, as it seeks to sell its subsidiary for several years. In announcing the transaction, the mining group had also said that eventually, his goal remained to assign its interest in the joint venture.

Lafarge had said at the time that the operation would not impact on the group in terms of cash.

Anglo American, one of the world's largest mining companies, is also listed in South Africa.

Lafarge is the world leader in cement, aggregates number two and number four of the concrete. As part of its debt, it is almost released last year of his other business, the plaster.

Wall Street closed lower Monday for the fourth straight session, in response to poor employment statistics published last Friday.

The score, which was successfully reduced its losses later in the afternoon, has again worsened in recent transactions and indices show declines of 1% at least.

The Dow Jones finished for his share below its moving average of 15 days for the first time since Dec. 19.

The S & P 500 hit a low of more than three weeks in session but ended well above its moving average of 50 days near 1371.

The Dow Jones lost 130.55 points (1.00%) to 12,929.59. The S & P-500 gives 15.88 points (1.14%) to 1,382.20. The Nasdaq Composite Index drops 33.42 points (1.08%) to 3,047.08.

The U.S. economy created far fewer jobs than expected in March, which should extend the debate on the need for the Fed to adopt new measures to support growth, although the unemployment rate to 8.2%, is at its lowest for three years.

After modest losses of last week, the thresholds of support emerged from 1375 to 1380 for the S & P, notes Scott Davies (Brown Brothers Harriman).

"We reacted to weak employment numbers and now we will go to the results of companies, especially banks later this week," said Paul Nolte at the meeting (Dearborn Partners). 

Statistics raise questions about the ability of U.S. to boost global growth, at a time when fears resurface vis-à-vis the debt situation in Europe and China, why some are beginning to fear a crash landing.

A statistic of producer prices very dull rekindles the hypothesis that slower growth has become the cardinal problem of the Chinese government, not inflation.

But this context also the recovery hopes of the Federal Reserve launched a third program of quantitative easing (QE3).

The losses were brought mainly by financial, including the S & P lost 1.61%, and industrial, whose index yielded 1.61% e also. 

The "season" of corporate earnings is launched this week with Alcoa, as usual, open the show after the close Tuesday.

AOL jumped 43.3%. AOL announced Monday the sale of over 800 patents to Microsoft for a little over a billion dollars.

Microsoft has lost 1.33%.

Greece rejected again on Thursday the deadline for the exchange of debt issued by it, giving investors concerned until April 20 to make a decision .

Athens had said that the conversion of 20.27 billion euros of debt placed on the exchange and corresponding to 72% of securities issued under a system not under Greek law would take place on April 11.

The deadline for investors who refused to participate in the exchange to reverse their decision had already been extended to April 4 by the Greek government, who said no not afford to repay. 

Three options are now open in Athens vis-à-vis investors who continue to refuse to participate in the exchange: to continue to service the loans in question, to die be on these securities may offer a trial or improved while ensuring fair treatment for investors who have already accepted the exchange.

The Greek authorities have not yet decided but none of the tracks envisaged undermine the exchange agreed last month by private creditors, which conditioned a new slice Country Assistance.

Meetings of bondholders were held from March 27 to 29 to determine the contribution of 36 lines. The decision was adjourned for seven of them, representing an outstanding facial 2.45 billion euros and for which the deadline of April 18 was also ; postponed to April 20.

March 12, Athens had exchanged sovereign bonds governed by Greek law with a face value of 177 billion euros against new titles, with the resulting loss of value of 74% for de Holders of bonds.

Investment funds have expressed their interest brands to buy AIM, the company specializes in equipment for the home, told Reuters sources in the environment capital investment.

AIM was acquired in 2008 by a consortium of three private equity fund, Colony Capital, Goldman Sachs and OpCapita.

The cycle of the investment matures and these funds are now ready to consider offers of redemption after such changed direction and set up an operational turnaround, explained the sources.

"There is no formal mandate given to the sale of AIM but it's an asset on which there are signs of interest that are being studied by the shareholders," said , a source told Reuters. 

None of the owners contacted by Reuters has declined to comment.

For the head of AIM, it is natural that funds begin to approach the shareholders of the sign, but said not to be aware of a specific offer.

"We are in a period when the fund begins to ask for his release after four years of investment. On the other side there are a lot of money available, so the files look the funds, "said CEO Regis Schultz

……. .. For him, the operational performance of BUT could encourage investment funds to look at the file

. "We have growth in average 7% annually over the past three years and we are almost 1.2 billion euros in sales for AIM SA and 1.8 billion total for the brand ", has He detailed

. "Ebitda (gross operating surplus) is just over 80 million euros. "GOAL

announced in early March have reached a market share of 10.3% in 2011 against 9.2% in 2008. The brand also announced last year have transferred the walls 25 of its stores in France for 200 million euros.

GOAL has also indicated that it would open in early March this year for the first time a store in Paris, avenue de Wagram, near the Place de l'Etoile.

A possible sale of BUT would intervene when the market of private equity and mergers and acquisitions has stalled, a victim of the cumulative effects of the credit crunch and economic slump.

If investment bankers cite numerous potential issues as the Alain Afflelou or Redcats division of PPR, few transactions have reached the stage of a firm offer. 

The M & A transactions involving at least one French company totaled January-March $ 14.1 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data released on March 23, ….. …

almost three times less than the same period last year.

Turkey has maintained a growth rate near the Chinese last year. The crisis in the eurozone is expected to slow to just 4% in 2012 before an expected rebound next year.

A little slack in the fourth quarter prevented the Turkish economy as well as to China in 2011. It has not been less vigorous growth of 8.5% over the last year, announced Monday the statistical institute, TUIK, against 9.2% for the Middle Kingdom. The government expected a growth of about 8.0% in 2011. In the first three quarters, it was 9.6%. But slowed to 5.2% in the fourth.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita reached 10,444 dollars (780 euros) or $ 365 more than in 2010, according to the TUIK. "The growth rate is probably the second highest in the world, after China", welcomed the Minister for Science, Industry and Technology Nihat Ergun, was quoted by the Anatolia news agency.

Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek for his part stressed that the rate was in line with government expectations, which in a challenging global economy is trying to organize a "soft landing" of its economy. "The figures in the last quarter show that the soft landing process continues at a steady pace, in line with government objectives," said Mr. Simsek to Anatolia.

The government forecasts growth of 4% in 2012 in the wake of the crisis in the eurozone but believes that this slowdown will be short lived. In 2013 and 2014, Ankara expects a 5% rate. "With the good growth performance and discipline policies implemented in the process of improving indices of the Turkish public debt continues," said Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan was quoted as saying.

"While concerns grow about public finance from developed countries, the improvement in Turkey's public deficit and debt burden will be important to maintain confidence and sustainable growth based on private sector demand "added Babacan. Turkey, a country of about 73 million people, political power and regional 17th world economy had grown by 8.9% in 2010.

The Scellier for a tax reduction on investments in rental housing will disappear at the end of the year. Should we still buy them? What do the presidential candidates? Can we really live without it? Our responses.

End of 2012, the exit Scellier, but this time no replacement in sight. Established in 2009, the device-which succeeded other similar laws (Robien Borloo Périssol) – was a tax cut to every purchaser of a new home ready to rent it to nine years. Since 2011, control of public expenditure requires the rate of tax reduction has ceased to be planed. 25% of its creation, it rose from 22% last year to 13% for 2012.  

"It is a law in the drawer as the earlier devices, ie that is closed as soon as you need it anymore," says David Charlet, President Anacofi, the National Association of Financial Advisors. This is the case for the government that points two things. First, the device is considered too expensive. The budgetary cost was estimated at 120 million euros for 2010 and 300 million euros in 2011, according to the report of the Finance Committee. An expense that recurs every year over the life of the device.

The other problem is that the investment subsidy has had perverse effects. The Scellier indeed originally applied to all new housing, which led developers to build where the price of land was cheap … even when there was no demand to live there. Hence many business owners in difficulty because of not finding tenants. To try to remedy this, the government has also established a risk map and lowered the rental rent ceilings. Which does today, "about 35% of housing Scellier are located in areas with rental risks," explains Sandrine Levasseur Economist at OFCE.

Are there still bargains in Scellier in 2012?

In this context, the Scellier Offret he still favorable opportunities. Perhaps. But necessarily fewer. "The supply Scellier becoming increasingly rare" recognizes Dacquin Olivier, Director Development and Communications at Heritage Bank and Real Estate. Especially as to maximize returns on their investment, customers must buy a new home BBB (low energy) to qualify for the rate of tax reduction up to 13%. For other units (conventional and intermediate), the reduction rate is lower. " Furthermore, new price caps per square meter to calculate the tax cut were fixed by decree. In the end, "combine an investment in good quality, well positioned, not too expensive to optimize investment in Scellier is a rare commodity." Including zone B1, ie in the center of large cities. "The Scellier is end of life, we are at end of cycle" adds the president of the Anacofi. One thing is certain, this is the last time to enjoy it, but "at the same time he is the coup of buying in a market where demand is non-existent?" he asks.

How the Presidential candidates they planning to offset the end of Scellier?

For now, no candidate has announced equivalent measure for investors, requires fiscal discipline. The revival of the construction is supposed to pass through other means. Francois Hollande proposes to double the ceiling of the booklet A. Objective: collect 15 to 20 billion euros in additional savings to increase the production of social housing. "This is a good measure if the savings is captured in a stable manner, it will automatically give more money to social housing. But social housing is not everything," said M.Charlet. As for the implementation of land disposal of the State, the question is "property that is under the foot and those that can potentially be used in housing" asked the latter. Also on this measure, "if municipalities sell their property, they must still meet there financially," added David Charlet.

For its by Nicolas Sarkozy is proposing to increase by 30% the rights to build, "This will affect the periphery, the effects will be much more limited in dense areas," said Jean-Michel Ciuch, president of consulting Immogroup, a center of analysis and expertise in real estate. He added "this will have an inflationary effect in the short and medium term."

"Thanks to Scellier, the state took the money of the owners, he has not committed" to M.Charlet. "Through measures such as doubling the ceiling of the booklet A, the provision of state property, or increase the building rights, the state wants to regain control," he explains. "But do we have any idea how many new homes can be built without the Scellier?". We can adopt another schema only shown by the public, remains to demonstrate its effectiveness.

Finally, remove the Scellier will result in job supressions several private economic agents in the sector of building and construction.

Can we do without such a device Scellier?

For scholars of management consulting heritage, the answer is unsurprisingly negative. But they advocate "a more effective framework of law strice" coupled "to lower tax benefits," said David Charlet. Jean Michel Ciuch, one thing is certain, even if there are no plans to replace the Scellier, a reflection will certainly incur after the presidential election, because the rental market is an essential key in the overall balance. " It also advocates a better box, but "we need a successor to Scellier," said the CEO of Immogroup, proposing to extend it to the former, a somewhat forgotten market according to him. "This should benefit personal and institutional, "continues Mr Ciuch

. However, no need to" doping ", for Dacquin Olivier, Director of Development and Marketing Heritage Bank and Real Estate. "Look at the market of the former, he is doing very well without Scellier". "By abandoning the Scellier we return to the fundamentals of real estate investment or a long term investment heritage, and not an investment at all costs, only worn by profitability," he concludes.