China will begin a cycle of easing monetary policy next month, via a lowering of reserve requirements for banks, a sign that the country feared the consequences of the global economic downturn, according to a survey released Tuesday by Reuters.
Of 19 analysts surveyed, 10 thought that the Chinese central bank will decrease by 50 basis points in the reserve requirement ratio, currently at 21.5%, a level which, according to the bank, affects their profitability and lending capacity.
Two weeks ago, the Chinese central bank said China was ready if necessary to adjust its monetary policy.
Eight analysts believe that the lower reserve requirement ratio will occur in the first quarter 2012 and one analyst expects the second quarter.
Last week, a majority of market participants did not see any easing before the first quarter of 2012, but the worsening debt crisis in the euro zone could precipitate the decision of the Chinese monetary authorities.
Inflationary pressures have led them to meet several times the interest rates and bank reserve requirements since October 2010.
Since then, inflation has decelerated slightly to 5.5% last month, but remains above the official target of 4%.