Bad news for French households and consumer prices should continue to grow in 2011, while wages will stagnate and that taxes will increase.
After months of stagnation, inflation awoke late 2010, in France and in Europe. Consumer prices in France rose 1.8% year on year in December. On average, throughout the year, inflation should reach 1.5% at 1% in 2009.
Direct consequence of this increase: the rate of pay of the Livret A, a favorite investment of the French, will climb 2% on 1 February. Good news for the 59 million holders of savings product. For consumers, however, the pill may be bitter inflationary.
Rising consumer prices recorded in 2010 due to half the surge in energy prices, particularly oil.A barrel of crude is actually spent about $ 70 to almost $ 100 over the last three months. For the French who heat with gas or buy gasoline for their car, the soaring price of energy strike the wallet.
Food products should increase soon
The other two positions that have pulled up prices last year are housing and transportation. Again, these are fixed expenses for households. Bad news: according to most economists, the rise of consumer prices expected to continue in 2011. BNP Paribas expects inflation to 1.7%, France 1.6% HSBC, Natixis and CPE of 1.5%.
First, because the soaring prices of agricultural raw materials has not yet been passed on to food prices.Then, because even if the bullish momentum slowing down, oil prices should remain at a high level between 80 and 90 dollars a barrel. The rising cost of fuel at the pump is not over. Finally, since the beginning of the year is marked by a series of inflation rates (electricity, insurance, telecom subscriptions, visit to the doctor, etc.)..
But these price increases will not be compensated by wages. The rise in the index of base monthly salary (SMB) in 2010 is at a level close to inflation. This means that the gain in purchasing power of employees is virtually zero. In 2011, companies will not be more generous. Consulting firms specializing in the analysis of wage policies of firms believe that budgets increases will remain historically low.
Elimination of many tax benefits
Not to mention that the policy of reducing the government deficit will result in the removal this year of a large number of tax reductions enjoyed until now households (reduction of social charges on employment at home, tax benefit married and PACS, reduced bonus cars, decreased the reduction of the solidarity tax on wealth …).
"1.5% inflation in the macroeconomic environment that surrounds the French is a lot," said Frédérique Cerisier, economist at BNP Paribas. "The purchasing power of households will be lower in 2011 than in 2010, warns Jean-Christophe Caffet of Natixis.It is caught between a rock – a sustained high inflation – and a hard place – pay on the downside. "
Therefore, household consumption, the main engine of French growth, the chances are slow this year. Especially since the scrapping, a measure that drew the car sales in France in 2009 and 2010, has died. After +1.6% expected in 2010, consumption would be only 1%, according to economists' forecasts of BNP and Natixis. In this context, the target of 2% GDP growth the government seems difficult to achieve …