Faced with the persistent weakness of growth, particularly in the U.S. and the Eurozone, major central banks should wait until 2012 to trace their interest rates, the OECD said on Wednesday.
Ten-day summit of Heads of State and Government of the G20 in Seoul, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has also called for continued fiscal consolidation, highlighting the risks associated with the rise of sovereign debt .
She also called for coordination of policies to reduce global imbalances, underscoring the risk of unilateral intervention in currency markets triggering a protectionist backlash.
"The global economy is recovering, albeit at a slower pace than earlier this year," says the OECD.
"Today we can say that the slump recedes.It grows slowly, but growing, "he said to reporters the chief economist of the organization, Pier Carlo Padoan.
"The consumer is doing a little better, investment is doing a little better, international trade is recovering, so a number of advanced economies benefit of maintaining a strong growth in emerging economies and demand for their exports, "he added.
However, the OECD believes that "the task that are facing policy makers is the passage of a policy against the crisis to a policy that would restore confidence and stability."
FOR FISCAL CONSOLIDATION "CREDIBLE"
She therefore advocates the use of "all the major levers of economic policy – fiscal, structural, financial and monetary".
On this last point, "because of the slow growth in the U.S. and the eurozone (…), the normalization of interest rates should not really happen until the first half of 2012, a pace that allows monetary policy to remain accommodative, "said she.
The OECD expects 2% to 2.5% growth on average in 2011 in the "OECD", which includes all member countries, against 2.5% to 3% expected for this year.And for 2012, it anticipates a return in the range of 2.5% to 3%.
In the euro area, growth should not exceed 2% this year and next year, and it should be between 1.75% and 2.25% in 2012.In its previous forecast in May, the organization was counting on 1.2% growth for the area in 2010 and 1.8% in 2011.
Despite an initial improvement in the labor market, unemployment will remain high until at least 2012, around 7.5% on average in OECD countries, against -8.5% 8% expected this year, with an average twice as high among young people.
UNEMPLOYMENT: THE CASE OF GERMANY
"This crisis is a crisis of youth unemployment, very serious," he told a news conference the secretary general of the organization, Angel Gurria, citing the example of Germany, which has virtually reduced its rates unemployment to its level before the crisis.
Asked to give recommendations on the fight against unemployment and vocational training, he replied: "They might buy a ticket to Germany, to study what happens there."
Angel Gurria also called for fiscal consolidation "credible" capable of responding to the concerns created by the rise of sovereign debt.
He stressed a simple stabilization of debt / GDP ratios of countries whose finances are most driving would be a fiscal effort could reach 9% of GDP.
While being careful not to take over the phrase "war of currencies", he has used that explicitly mentioning the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega, Angel Gurria called for "coordination and cooperation "and welcomed the outcome of the recent meeting of G20 finance ministers in South Korea, which he linked to" the appreciation, even modest, of the Chinese currency "in recent days.