Saved by purchases of television sets before the World Cup football, the French household consumption of manufactured goods rose 0.7% in May but the underlying trend remains gloomy.
The figure released Thursday by INSEE is better than expected – economists surveyed by Reuters on average expected a 0.4% – but the one in April was revised to -1.3% instead of -1.2 %, the third decline in four months.
Purchases of televisions and decoders at the World but also the transition to all-digital "by Britain and the Loire have boosted spending on equipment housing by 7.3% in May, after a 0.5% decline in April.
It is the largest increase for the position since May 2002 (+8.9%), before a previous edition of the World Cup.
If car sales have leveled off in May (-0.1% after -9.6% in April), spending on textiles and leather fell 1.6% after one month of April already dull (-1 1%) and purchases of "other manufactures" decreased by 0.2%, within the scope of a decline in hardware-DIY by INSEE.
Sales of clothing should take advantage of summer sales in June or July, but the debacle of the France team in South Africa could stop the run on the Net TVs.
"The boom in sales of televisions is a phenomenon is observed before each major sporting event, of course, is completely temporary and this time it will be corrected more quickly," said Olivier Gasnier, an economist at the Company General.
In addition, the May figure does not offset the drop in April and raised fears of a further decline in household consumption of manufactured goods throughout the second quarter after falling 1.9% in January-March, adds there.
LONG-TERM SOFT PATH
Nicolas Bouzou Asteris analysis firm, calculates that there should be an increase of at least 0.8% in June for the purchase of manufactured goods are stable in the second quarter.
"It's possible but unlikely given the context," Judge said."The trajectory of the consumption trend is soft and durable it will affect the growth of GDP.
Spending on manufactured goods account for about one quarter of total household consumption of goods and services, it is known that with the quarterly national accounts.
Energy costs as a result of severe winter led to the consumption of all households to remain in the first quarter (0.0%) and INSEE's forecast released Wednesday, is expected further stagnation in April-JuneIn total, the whole of 2010, household consumption would grow by 1.2%.
"It's possible that we have a decline in consumer spending in the second quarter because there will be a correction in energy costs," said Olivier Gasnier, for its part.
In the short term, he adds, high unemployment, pension reform and concerns about public finances are not likely to encourage the French to consume.
"Pension reform and the policy of fiscal consolidation may have a long-term, but for now we are in shock to confidence measures for pensions and the expectations about the nature of fiscal tightening future.All this can promote a precautionary savings behavior. "
The May survey of the INSEE household surveys showed that they were pessimistic about both their personal future and the standard of living in France, a finding which may be found in the June survey that will be published Tuesday.
"The delusional semantic debate about the rigor / restraint / discipline has caused confusion in the minds of the French who fear probably increases the tax burden and lower wages in the public service, while fiscal consolidation can be done without use these two levers, "concludes Nicolas Bouzou.